2017 College Football Preview – Atlantic Coast Conference – Atlantic Division

                 ACC Atlantic Proj 7.5.17

Boston College Eagles

Projected Wins – 3.85
Projected ACC Wins – 1.87
Projected Offense Rank – 109th
Projected Defense Rank – 40th

I seem to project Boston College lower than the markets do when looking at the Games of the Year lines.  They do return 15 starters which will help but this team was negative in net yards per play last season and somehow managed to win seven games.  I expect them to regress this season with tough scheduling match-ups to finish the year.  I will not be playing any futures with Boston College but I am looking at the Notre Dame -7 @ Boston College as I expect Notre Dame to be much improved this season.

Boston College Futures/Props/Week 1/Games of the Year from 5Dimes:

Boston College over/under 4 wins: -120/+100
Boston College to win the College Football Playoff: +150000
Boston College to win the ACC: +17500
Boston College to win the ACC-Atlantic Division: +4000

Boston College @ Northern Illinois
5Dimes – Boston College -2.5
Mock – Boston College +3.9

Wake Forest @ Boston College
5Dimes – Boston College +1
Mock – Boston College -3.4

Notre Dame @ Boston College
5Dimes – Boston College +7
Mock – Boston College +10.9

Boston College @ Clemson
5Dimes – Boston College +25.5
Mock – Boston College +27.8

Clemson Tigers

Projected Wins – 9.28
Projected ACC Wins – 5.87
Projected Offense Rank – 11th
Projected Defense Rank – 10th

Dabo and Co. have to defend their title while losing Deshaun Watson and Mike Williams, among others, to the NFL.  On the bright side, Dabo has recruited very well the past couple seasons and will not have a problem putting talented players on the field.  The part of Clemson that scares me is the QB position.  There isn’t a clear starter right now and Watson isn’t the easiest guy to replace.  Clemson hosts Auburn in Week 2 and then immediately travels to Louisville to take on reigning Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson in Week 3.  If the QB play is sub par early, Clemson could be looking at a 1-2 start to their season.  I am currently not interested in any futures involving Clemson as their QB questions are too big to ignore.

Clemson Futures/Props/Week 1/Games of the Year from 5Dimes:

Clemson over/under 9.5 wins: +100/-120
Clemson to win the College Football Playoff: +3500
Clemson to make the College Football Playoff: +600
Clemson plays in New Year’s Six Bowl: +120
Clemson to win the ACC: +460
Clemson to win the ACC-Atlantic Division: +260

Kent State @ Clemson
5Dimes – Clemson -38.5
Mock – Clemson -38.1

Auburn @ Clemson
5Dimes – Clemson -5
Mock – Clemson -5.8

Clemson @ Louisville
5Dimes – Clemson -1.5
Mock – Clemson +1.2

Boston College @ Clemson
5Dimes – Clemson -25.5
Mock – Clemson -27.8

Clemson @ Virginia Tech
5Dimes – Clemson -6
Mock – Clemson -4.7

Georgia Tech @ Clemson
5Dimes – Clemson -18
Mock – Clemson -17.1

Clemson @ NC State
5Dimes – Clemson -6.5
Mock – Clemson -3.4

Florida State @ Clemson
5Dimes – Clemson -2
Mock – Clemson +0.7

Clemson @ South Carolina
5Dimes – Clemson -10.5
Mock – Clemson -15.4

Florida State Seminoles

Projected Wins – 9.72
Projected ACC Wins – 6.74
Projected Offense Rank – 2nd
Projected Defense Rank – 13th

The Seminoles are probably my favorite team to hop on the bandwagon this year because of the way their schedule sets up.  They open with a neutral site game against Alabama and if they lose this game I am going to jump on their price to win the national title.  Florida State is the third best team in the country according to my projections and I have them favored in all of their remaining games after the opener.  I am taking a bit of a gamble because I believe they do have a shot to upset Alabama but I will take my chances.  I also like their price of +110 to win the ACC with getting Miami FL, NC State, and Louisville at home in conference play.  Traveling to Death Valley will be a test but if Clemson has inconsistent QB play, I like Florida State to win.

Florida State Futures/Props/Week 1/Games of the Year from 5Dimes:

Florida State over/under 9.5 wins: -135/+115
Florida State to win the College Football Playoff: +850
Florida State to make the College Football Playoff: +145
Florida State plays in New Year’s Six Bowl: -350
Florida State to win the ACC: +110
Florida State to win the ACC-Atlantic Division: -145

Florida State vs Alabama
5Dimes – Florida State +7.5
Mock – Florida State +6.8

Miami FL @ Florida State
5Dimes – Florida State -9.5
Mock – Florida State -13.6

NC State @ Florida State
5Dimes – Florida State -19.5
Mock – Florida State -15.3

Louisville @ Florida State
5Dimes – Florida State -9
Mock – Florida State -9.2

Florida State @ Clemson
5Dimes – Florida State +2
Mock – Florida State -0.7

Florida State @ Florida
5Dimes – Florida State -4.5
Mock – Florida State -6.6

Louisville Cardinals

Projected Wins – 9.66
Projected ACC Wins – 5.94
Projected Offense Rank – 3rd
Projected Defense Rank – 33rd

Lamar Jackson, reigning Heisman Trophy winner, will try to be the first repeat winner since Archie Griffin in the 70’s.  By doing so, he will give Louisville their best shot to win as their offense will need to be strong to pull off some upsets if they want to make it to the College Football Playoff.  Louisville was only held under 30 points three times last year, twice resulting in losses.  If their defense can improve, Louisville’s schedule sets up nicely where 11-1 is very possible.  They do have to travel to Florida State (projected loss) and NC State but they get Clemson at home.  Louisville will also only play four true road games out of the state of Kentucky in 2017.  Louisville over 9 wins at -120 is catching my eye as a possible play as we get closer to the season.  I am also looking at Louisville -2 @ North Carolina.  North Carolina has a lot of shoes to fill on offense and will have to put up points to stay with Louisville.  I have Cardinals by about eight.  No other Louisville futures for me at this time.

Louisville Futures/Props/Week 1/Games of the Year from 5Dimes:

Louisville over/under 9 wins: -120/+100
Louisville to win the College Football Playoff: +5000
Louisville to make the College Football Playoff: +1000
Louisville plays in New Year’s Six Bowl: +275
Louisville to win the ACC: +850
Louisville to win the ACC-Atlantic Division: +475

Louisville @ Purdue
5Dimes – Louisville -26.5
Mock – Louisville -27.9

Louisville @ North Carolina
5Dimes – Louisville -2
Mock – Louisville -7.8

Clemson @ Louisville
5Dimes – Louisville +1.5
Mock – Louisville -1.5

Kent State @ Louisville
5Dimes – Louisville -30.5
Mock – Louisville -35.9

Louisville @ NC State
5Dimes – Louisville -3
Mock – Louisville -3.7

Louisville @ Florida State
5Dimes – Louisville +9
Mock – Louisville +9.2

Louisville @ Kentucky
5Dimes – Louisville -8
Mock – Louisville -12.2

North Carolina State Wolfpack

Projected Wins – 7.76
Projected ACC Wins – 4.58
Projected Offense Rank – 35th
Projected Defense Rank – 17th

I will like to admit that my projections are bullish on the Wolfpack going into the season.  The strength to this team is their defense, as their offense kind of held them back at times last year.  The offense returns QB Ryan Finley as well as eight others and the defense returns eight so they are experienced enough to take a couple of steps forward and maybe pull off some major upsets (they do get Louisville and Clemson at home).  Last year NC State had a 4th quarter lead against Florida State, which they blew and lost.  They also took Clemson to OT.  The strength of their defense is their defensive line and they should be good enough to keep them in a lot of games this season.  Watch out.  As for futures, plus money on over 7.5 is tempting but they simply have too many games that could go either way for me to jump on that.  I will wait for a 7 or pass. I am interested in NC State vs Clemson, however, I would like that number to climb to +7 before having a play.  I will most likely wait until season for this play.

NC State Futures/Props/Week 1/Games of the Year from 5Dimes:

NC State over/under 7.5 wins: +110/-130
NC State to win the College Football Playoff: +20000
NC State to make the College Football Playoff: +3000
NC State plays in New Year’s Six Bowl: +450
NC State to win the ACC: +3000
NC State to win the ACC-Atlantic Division: +1400

South Carolina @ NC State
5Dimes – NC State – 5
Mock – NC State -9.5

NC State @ Florida State
5Dimes – NC State +19.5
Mock – NC State +15.3

Louisville @ NC State
5Dimes – NC State +3
Mock – NC State +3.7

Clemson @ NC State
5Dimes – NC State +6.5
Mock – NC State +3.4

Syracuse Orange

Projected Wins – 4.59
Projected ACC Wins – 2.25
Projected Offense Rank – 45th
Projected Defense Rank – 82nd

Dino Babers and his squad come into the college football season as the most experienced team, returning 20 starters total.  The defense was one of the worst in the country last season, ranking 125th according to my projections last season.  Fortunately, they return all 11 starters from that defense and they should make a big improvement.  The offense should also improve and they will be running plays as fast as anyone in the nation.  Look for Syracuse to still have very high totals as the defense still won’t be great and the pace of play will be incredibly high which can give teams fits if the offense is clicking that day.  I do think Florida State shouldn’t take it easy against the Orange since it is a sandwich game but I will not be placing any futures on Syracuse.

Syracuse Futures/Props/Week 1/Games of the Year from 5Dimes:

Syracuse over/under 4.5 wins: -105/-115
Syracuse to win the College Football Playoff: +200000
Syracuse to make the College Football Playoff: None Listed
Syracuse plays in New Year’s Six Bowl: None Listed
Syracuse to win the ACC: +14000
Syracuse to win the ACC-Atlantic Division: +3500

Syracuse @ LSU
5Dimes – Syracuse +20.5
Mock – Syracuse -25.5

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Projected Wins – 3.76
Projected ACC Wins – 1.78
Projected Offense Rank – 110th
Projected Defense Rank – 47th

Wake Forest is another team, like Boston College, that won seven games last year but was a negative net yards per play team (4.6-5.3).  The Demon Deacons do return 15 starters from last year, including 9 (QB as well) on offense but I just don’t have faith in a team that really struggled down the stretch on offense.  I will be looking to jump on their team total under of 5.5 due to how my projections value them as well as their schedule being unfavorable (@App State, FSU, @Clemson, @GT, Louisville, @Notre Dame consecutively).  My projections have them favored in one game (outside of the season opener against Presbyterian).  Traveling to Appalachian State and Notre Dame in the out of conference schedule will help keep that win total low.

Wake Forest Futures/Props/Week 1/Games of the Year from 5Dimes:

Wake Forest over/under 5.5 wins: +110/-130
Wake Forest to win the College Football Playoff: +200000
Wake Forest to make the College Football Playoff: None Listed
Wake Forest plays in New Year’s Six Bowl: None Listed
Wake Forest to win the ACC: +17500
Wake Forest to win the ACC-Atlantic Division: +4000

Wake Forest @ Boston College
5Dimes – Wake Forest -1
Mock – Wake Forest +3.4

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